Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
