Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Selection Process

Multiple members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several sources also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.