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The direst possible consequences of the climate crisis for the UK have been detailed by scientists, including a searing 4C increase in mean temperatures to a two-metre rise in sea levels. An alternative projection predicts a decline of 6C in temperature following the collapse of key Atlantic Ocean currents, which would severely impact food production and energy demand.

Possible Outcomes, Not Predictions

These impacts, a number of which are associated with climate tipping points, are considered as improbable but plausible. The team explained that these scenarios plugged a hole in risk assessment that had rendered the UK ill-prepared for catastrophic possibilities.

"The worst-case scenarios we have detailed aren’t predictions, but they are possible," said the professor who directed the analysis. "The nation has been making preparations lacking the frameworks to plan for worst-case scenarios. We've now given planners what they need to prepare for future conditions they pray never occur, but must not overlook."

A Suite of Severe Conditions Projections

A second set of worst-case scenarios sets out the possible scale of severe conditions between now and the year 2100. These suggest that thermometer readings could rocket in particular seasons by up to 6C above the norm, while rainfall could be 300% of standard measurements.

The chance of the worst-case outcomes coming to pass cannot be precisely determined due to a lack of certainty about what action will be taken to combat global heating and how the Earth's systems will behave. This research was described as similar to defence planning or scenario planning for financial systems.

Critical Possibility Elements

• Four-Degree Warming: Worldwide averages soaring past 4C by 2100 could occur if climate action fails or if powerful amplifying effects such as the tropical forests dying unleash its vast reserves of carbon. This would cause extreme and prolonged heatwaves and droughts hitting the UK in summer.
• Atlantic Current Collapse: A major ocean current, the North Atlantic current, is weakening and becoming unstable due to global heating. A collapse beginning in 2030 would lead to a six-degree temperature drop in the UK. "Crop production would struggle enormously and freshwater availability would be completely altered," noted the lead researcher.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A surge of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could happen if polar ice in the Arctic and Antarctic disintegrate quickly, inundating low-lying areas. Unlike the other scenarios, this threat is already recognized by infrastructure experts.
• Pollution Paradox: Temperatures could also be driven up by about 0.75C if pollution from industry is rapidly cleaned up. This unexpected result occurs because tiny specks from fossil fuel combustion reflect solar radiation from warming the ground.

Preparing for the Unthinkable

These dire projections could be used to inform the development of major projects, including new towns, nuclear power stations and urban drainage systems. Knowledge about these future hazards could also speed the transition to reduce fossil fuel emissions.

The research formulated the extreme models using a mix of observed and historical experience, climate models and established principles. These outcomes exclude broader worldwide issues like the global food shortages and geopolitical instability.

The project was requested as part of a national risk assessment framework. Earlier reports have stated that insufficient focus was being given to catastrophic yet improbable risks.

Official experts has recommended that the UK must "become resilient to moderate heating" and examine the threats for 4C. Previous adaptation plans have been labeled being "insufficient" by some observers.

An official statement noted: "The climate emergency is at the center of this government’s agenda, both preparing for impacts and transitioning to a renewable energy leader. It is crucial that the UK is ready for the consequences."